The understanding of how allocation decisions can maximise the economic returns to the community from water for irrigation has received little attention, but is a significant issue for regional councils, those interested in water allocation policy development, and for irrigated farmers. There is...

We study the difference in the volatility dynamics of CBOT corn, soybeans, and oatsfutures prices across different delivery horizons via the smoothed Bayesian estimatorof Karali, Dorfman, and Thurman (2010). We show that the futures price volatilitiesin these markets are affected by the...

The paper examines empirical returns from holding thirty- and ninety-day call and put positions,and the forecasting performance of implied volatility in the live and feeder cattle optionsmarkets. In both markets, implied volatility is an upwardly biased and inefficient predictor ofrealized...

Grain prices have risen sharply since 2005 and 2006 affecting livestock markets by increasingfeed prices and leading to significant volatility shocks. The high price levels and magnitude ofsustained high volatilities has raised concerns for many sectors of the economy, in particularthose with...

Taken together, studies that examine how well commodity futures marketsperform find that risk premiums are common—and so unbiasedness is not—and marketsare not uniformly efficient across commodities or forecast horizons. This large body ofresearch sheds important light on whether and to what...

Futures prices when combined with a basis forecast provide a reliable way to forecast cashprices. The most popular method of forecasting basis is historical moving averages. Given therecent failure of longer moving averages proposed by previous studies, this research reassessespast...

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