The new Supplemental Agricultural Disaster Assistance (SURE) program, established by the 2008 Farm Bill, mandates disaster payments for individual farms that experience crop losses in excess of 50% of their average production, whether or not those farms are located in regions affected by...

Agricultural production is subject to supply risk. Expected and realized farm outputs and output prices are unknown and unobservable when inputs are chosen. Crop and livestock production decisions are linked over time. Producers expectations are particularly difficult to model. This paper...