What is the fundamental value of a stock? Do stock prices deviate from this fundamental value? If yes, do they go back to their fundamental value? This paper proposes to answer these three questions by using a stock valuation model based on the Consumption-Capital Asset Pricing Model (C-CAPM)...

The out-of-sample forecasting performance of traditional stock return models (dividend yield, t-bill rate, etc.) is compared with the forecasting performance of the Livingston survey. The results suggest that the survey forecasts are much like a “too large” forecasting model: poor performance...

In this paper, we examine formally Keynes' idea that higher order beliefs can drivea wedge between an asset price and its fundamental value based on expected future payoffs. In a dynamic noisy rational expectations model, higher order expectations add an additional term, which we call the higher...

Crack and Ledoit (1996) discover the compass rose of stock returns, generated by discrete stock prices and additional assumptions concerning the level and variation of stock prices. They raise the question, whether this phenomenon does introduce predictable structures in stock returns. In...

Wertmanagement und Shareholder value-Streben sind nicht nur betrieblicheFinanzzielausrichtungen. Sie haben auch eine gesamtwirtschaftlich optimaleRessourcenallokation herbeizuführen. Dies setzt eine effiziente Informationsverarbeitungan den Kapitalmärkten voraus. In der Realität stets zu...