The approximate agents' wealth and price invariant densities of the prediction market model presented in Kets et al.(2014) is derived using the Fokker-Planck equation of the associated continuous-time jump process. We show that the approximation obtained from the evolution of log-wealth...

We investigate market selection and bet pricing in a simple Arrow security economy which we show is equivalent to the repeated prediction market models studied in the literature. We derive the condition for long run survival of more than one agent (the crowd) and quantify the information content...

In this paper, we examine an exchange economy with a financial market composed of three assets: a share of a stock, an European call option written on the stock, and a riskless bond. The financial market is assumed to be incomplete and the option is not a redundant asset. In such a case the...

In this paper, we examine an exchange economy with a financial market composed of three assets: a share of a stock, an European call option written on the stock, and a riskless bond. The financial market is assumed to be incomplete and the option is not a redundant asset. In such a case the...

In this paper, we examine an exchange economy with a financial market composed of three assets: shares of a stock, European call options written on the stock, and riskless bonds. The financial market is assumed to be incomplete and the option is not a redundant asset. In such a case the...

In this paper, we examine an exchange economy with a financial market composed of three assets: a share of a stock, an European call option written on the stock, and a riskless bond. The financial market is assumed to be incomplete and the option is not a redundant asset. In such a case the...

In this paper, we examine an exchange economy with a financial market composed of three assets: a share of a stock, an European call option written on the stock, and a riskless bond. The financial market is assumed to be incomplete and the option is not a redundant asset. In such a case the...

Recent research has suggested that natural selection in financial markets may be a very slow process, taking hundreds of years. We show in a general equilibrium model that it may be much faster in markets with large state spaces. In many cases, the time it takes to wipe out irrational investors...

This paper studies the effect of new fund flows on investment behavior and the resulting equilibrium price of risk. The Small Fund Industry model shows equilibria with overinvestment in unprofitable and underinvestment in profitable investment opportunities. The Large Fund Industry model derives...