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apply extreme value theory (EVT) distributions to predict extreme losses of five South African (SA) financial times stock … independently and identically distributed (i.i.d). It is therefore concluded that the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) is a …
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The paper develops a tail risk forecasting model that incorporates the wealth of economic and financial information available to risk managers. The approach can be viewed as a regularized extension of the two-stage GARCH-EVT model of McNeil and Frey (2000) where we permit a time-varying...
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