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fluctuations not forecasted by Gaussian models. This paper applies a resampling method based on the bootstrap and a bias …-correction step to improve Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasting ability of the n-EGARCH (normal EGARCH) model and correct the VaR for both … long and short positions. Our aim is to utilize the advantages of this model, but still use the bootstrap resampling method …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011632622
fifth risk factor based on realized volatility of index returns. Moreover, instead of using data for stocks of a particular … investable equity indices in the period of 2000-2015. Such an approach is proposed to estimate an equity risk premium for a … years we illustrate the importance of model risk and data overfitting effects when drawing conclusions upon results of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011539896
-frequency intraday returns. It disentangles covariance estimation into variance and correlation components. This allows to estimate … covariance estimation and the jump robustness of the estimator are illustrated in a simulation study. In an application to the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013115577
The Bates (2006) Approximate Maximum Likelihood (AML) method is considered from a practical point of view. Application of the AML method is undertaken using FFT with splines for integration. Results are validated by both simulation and comparison to MCMC literature. The SVJ model is estimated...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012932241
This paper proposes an extension to threshold-type switching models that lets the threshold variable be a linear combination of exogenous variables with unknown coefficients. An algorithm to estimate the model's parameters by least squares is provided and the validity of the methodological...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012974826
investigate risk/return characteristics of fundamentally-weighted and market-cap-weighted indexes and employ various risk …-adjustment approaches to ensure that return differences are not driven by risk. Based on stocks in the DJ Stoxx 600 index from July 1993 to … April 2007, we show that fundamentally-weighted indexes achieve higher risk-adjusted returns than market …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013138615
We compare more than 1000 different volatility models in terms of their fit to the historical ISE-100 Index data and their forecasting performance of the conditional variance in an out-of-sample setting. Exponential GARCH model of Nelson (1991) with “constant mean, t-distribution, one lag...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013159436
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012630868
Campbell and Shiller average 10 years of real S&P 500 earnings to construct its Cyclically Adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE, which they then use to forecast its future 10-year returns. In essence, Campbell and Shiller kill two birds with one large stone - they use the 10-year average to reduce noise...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012847032
. These RV budgets provide insight into the risk concentration of a portfolio. Furthermore, the RV budgets can be directly … used in a portfolio strategy, called the equal-risk-contribution allocation strategy. This yields both a higher average …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012976316