This paper aims to test whether equity returns are predictable over various horizons. We propose a reliable and powerful nonparametric test to examine the predictability of equity returns, which can be interpreted as a signal-to-noise ratio test. Our comprehensive in-sample and out-of-sample...

This article proposes a new nonparametric test to detect financial contagion by using a Kendall's tau-based asymmetric measure of comovements between two time series. Simulation studies demonstrate the reasonable size performance and good power in finite sample of our test. An empirical...

The extant literature predicts market returns with "simple" models that use only a few parameters. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we theoretically prove that simple models severely understate return predictability compared to "complex" models in which the number of parameters exceeds the...