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Long-run and cyclical dynamics in the US stock market
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alana, Luis A. - 2004
This paper examines the long-run dynamics and the cyclical structure of the US stock market using fractional integration techniques, specifically a version of the tests of Robinson (1994a) which allows for unit (or fractional) roots both at the zero (long-run) and at the cyclical frequencies. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293737
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Are stock returns a leading indicator for real macroeconomic developments?
Burgstaller, Johann - 2002
Austria, Japan and the USA. Further I deal with the concept of stock market efficiency, the question whether or not …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010294592
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Asymmetry and Spillover Effects in the North American Equity Markets
Pollard, Stephen K.; Sapra, Sunil K.; Canarella, Giorgio - In: Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal 1 (2007) 2007-12, pp. 1-52
In this paper we examine the issue of asymmetry in the return and volatility spillover effects from the US equity market into the Canadian and Mexican equity markets. We model the conditional volatility of the returns in each of the three markets using the asymmetric power model of Ding, Granger...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295295
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In search of distress risk
Campbell, John Y.; Hilscher, Jens; Szilagyi, Jan - 2005
This paper explores the determinants of corporate failure and the pricing of financially distressed stocks using US data over the period 1963 to 2003. Firms with higher leverage, lower profitability, lower market capitalization, lower past stock returns, more volatile past stock returns, lower...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295772
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Steht der deutsche Aktienmarkt unter politischem Einfluss?
Gottschalk, Katrin; Bohl, Martin T. - 2005
. Während sich die bis dato verfügbaren Studien über politisch bedingte Aktienmarktanomalien auf die USA konzentrieren …, analysieren wir deren Existenz in deutschen Aktienrenditen. Im Gegensatz zu den empirischen Ergebnissen für die USA zeigen sich … lassen. In Übereinstimmungen mit den für die USA verfügbaren Evidenzen ist auch für Deutschland von einem politisch …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010296346
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International Stock Return Predictability Under Model Uncertainty
Schrimpf, Andreas - 2008
This paper examines return predictability when the investor is uncertain about the right state variables. A novel feature of the model averaging approach used in this paper is to account for finite-sample bias of the coefficients in the predictive regressions. Drawing on an extensive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010298059
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Stock returns and expected business conditions: Half a century of direct evidence
Campbell, Sean D.; Diebold, Francis X. - 2005
We explore the macro/finance interface in the context of equity markets. In particular, using half a century of Livingston expected business conditions data we characterize directly the impact of expected business conditions on expected excess stock returns. Expected business conditions...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010298269
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Real-time price discovery in stock, bond and foreign exchange markets
Andersen, Torben G.; Bollerslev, Tim; Diebold, Francis X.; … - 2004
We characterize the response of U.S., German and British stock, bond and foreign exchange markets to real-time U.S. macroeconomic news. Our analysis is based on a unique data set of high-frequency futures returns for each of the markets. We find that news surprises produce conditional mean...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010298290
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Dectecting speculative bubbles in stock prices: A new approach and some evidence for the US
Bohl, Martin T.; Siklos, Pierre L. - 2001
A large part of the current debate on US stock price behavior concentrates on the question of whether stock prices are driven by fundamentals or by non-fundamental factors. In this paper we put forward the hypothesis that a present value model with time-varying expected returns provides an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010301738
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Long-horizon consumption risk and the cross-section of returns: New tests and international evidence
Grammig, Joachim G.; Schrimpf, Andreas; Schuppli, Michael - 2009
This paper investigates whether measuring consumption risk over long horizons can improve the empirical performance of the Consumption CAPM for size and value premia in international stock markets (US, UK, and Germany). In order to account for commonalities in size and book-tomarket sorted...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010302553