This paper tries to identify, for the first time, a chronology for the Portuguese stock market cycle and test for the presence of duration dependence in bull and bear markets. A duration dependent Markov-switching model is estimated over monthly growth rates of the Portuguese Stock Index for the...

We empirically investigate the effect of option listing on the underlying stock efficiency by examining the stock price duration dynamic and the informed trading activity around option listing. We use univariate tests and extended Log-ACD models that account for liquidity. Despite a significant...

Consider using the simple moving average (MA) rule of Gartley (1935) to determine when to buy stocks, and when to sell them and switch to the risk-free rate. In comparison, how might the performance be affected if the frequency is changed to the use of MA calculations? The empirical results show...

The proliferation of algorithmic high-frequency trading in financial markets has also led to an increase in new types of fraudulent activity. Since the flash-crash of 2010 first brought it to popular prominence, layering or spoofing fraud has become a major concern for financial regulators...

Consider using the simple moving average (MA) rule of Gartley (1935) to determine when to buy stocks, and when to sell them and switch to the risk-free rate. In comparison, how might the performance be affected if the frequency is changed to the use of MA calculations? The empirical results show...

We scrutinize China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Philippines, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand for the presence of rational bubbles by employing several tests on a large dataset that includes three bubble episodes. We also convert most tests into recursive to overcome structural...

This study investigates how the trade duration-based intensity modifies the first-order autocorrelation and the transitory variance of the trade process. Because prices are conditional expected values, a structural model in which the trade duration represents the rate at which prices incorporate...

Using density forecast evaluation techniques we compare the predictive performance of econometric specifications that have been developed for modeling duration processes in intra-day financial markets. The model portfolio encompasses various variants of the Autoregressive Conditional Duration...

Theoretical credit risk models a la Merton (1974) predict a non-linear negative link between a firm's default likelihood and asset value. This motivates us to propose a flexible empirical Markov-switching bivariate copula that allows for distinct time-varying dependence between credit default...

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to re-examine the presence of rational speculative bubbles in the Malaysian stock market in light of contradictory results presented in previous studies. Design/methodology/approach: We use descriptive statistics, explosiveness tests and the duration...