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Investors have too often extrapolated from recent experience. In the 1950s, who but the most rampant optimist would have dreamt that over the next fifty years the real return on equities would be 9% per year? Yet this is what happened in the U.S. stock market. The optimists triumphed. However,...
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the expected returns and expected dividend growth rates of the aggregate stock market. This approach aggregates … information contained in the history of price-dividend ratios and dividend growth rates to predict future returns and dividend … growth rates. We find that returns and dividend growth rates are predictable with R-squared values ranging from 8.2% to 8 …
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A large part of the current debate on US stock price behavior concentrates on the question of whether stock prices are driven by fundamentals or by non-fundamental factors. In this paper we put forward the hypothesis that a present value model with time-varying expected returns provides an...
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