We consider a gradient boosting decision trees (GBDT) approach to predict large S&P 500 price drops from a set of 150 technical, fundamental and macroeconomic features. We report an improved accuracy of GBDT over other machine learning (ML) methods on the S&P 500 futures prices. We show that...

Financial economic models often assume that investors know (or agree on) the fundamental value of the shares of the firm, easing the passage from the individual to the collective dimension of the financial system generated by the Share Exchange over time. Our model relaxes that heroic assumption...

This paper analyzes whether the market portfolio is efficiently related to benchmark portfolios formed on size, value, momentum and reversal with various utility theories by using stochastic dominance criteria. The results support the prospect theory including assumption of loss aversion at...

This paper explores the interaction between insider trading and seasoned equity offering in the context of Myers and Majluf (1984). Private information conveyed through trading activities may mitigate information asymmetry and improve capital market efficiency. Moreover, an insider has less...

We study the macrofinancial linkage of stock market and financial system stability in Indonesia. Three stock market-based measures are proposed and are tested to search for possible empirical link from observed stock prices (stock market mispricing), combination of observed price and fundamental...

The huge increase of HFT activity in recent years has posed the crucial question of whether it is beneficial for financial markets to both researchers and regulators. Recent academic research has studied the impact of HFT on different measures of market quality, such as liquidity, transaction...

We study empirically how competition among high-frequency traders (HFTs) affects their trading behavior and market quality. Our analysis exploits a unique dataset, which allows us to compare environments with and without high-frequency competition, and contains an exogenous event - a tick size...

I study empirically how competition among high-frequency traders (HFTs) affects their trading behavior and market quality. The analysis exploits a unique dataset, which allows comparing environments with and without high-frequency competition, and contains an exogenous event - a tick size reform...

We study empirically how competition among high-frequency traders (HFTs) affects their trading behavior and market quality. Our analysis exploits a unique dataset, which allows us to compare environments with and without high-frequency competition, and contains an exogenous event - a tick size...

In a production economy with trade in financial markets motivated by the desire to share labor-income risk and to speculate, we show that speculation increases volatility of asset returns and investment growth, increases the equity risk premium, and reduces welfare. Regulatory measures, such as...