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Stock market volatility was extremely high during the Great Depression relative to any other period in American history …-Nielsen and Shephard (2004) test for jumps in financial time-series. These jumps coincided with periods when stock volatility was … high as the arrival of new information about the uncertain future drove both the record stock volatility and the record …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013057225
Beaudry and Portier (2006) provide support for the "news view" of the business cycle, using a vector error correction model. We show that this result hinges on a cointegrating relationship between TFP and stock prices that is not stationary, thus making the estimates not reliable. If we alter...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012181050
return volatility. The model significantly improves prediction of the state of the economy using fully revised data. Real …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012896987
this relationship accentuates or attenuates idiosyncratic stock volatility. Fundamental uncertainty refers to the … stock volatility increases (reduces) with fundamental (information) uncertainty during both recession and expansion, but the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013024285
Recent literature theoretically assumes that exuberant Investors' sentiments increase the price of capital, signals strong fundamentals of the real side of the economy and drive asymmetric nonlinear asset prices. This study offers empirical insights into the interaction between investor...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012949754
Using U.S. data from 1926 to 2015, I show that financial skewness?a measure comparing cross-sectional upside and downside risks of the distribution of stock market returns of financial firms?is a powerful predictor of business cycle fluctuations. I then show that shocks to financial skewness are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014115594
The cross-sectional average of pairwise correlations across stocks traded on the NYSE, AMEX, and Nasdaq is a powerful predictor of U.S. economic activity at a horizon of one to four years. Its predictive ability is on a par with the slope of the yield curve and significantly exceeds that of some...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014227600
The VIX, the stock market option-based implied volatility, strongly co-moves with measures of the monetary policy … stance. When decomposing the VIX into two components, a proxy for risk aversion and expected stock market volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011590620
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