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captures the arbitrage-free dynamics of stock returns and nominal bond yields. The model nests the class of affine term … structure (of interest rates) models. Stock returns and bond yields as well as risk premia are affine functions of the state …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003832616
captures the arbitrage-free dynamics of stock returns and nominal bond yields. The model nests the class of affine term … structure (of interest rates) models. Stock returns and bond yields as well as risk premia are affine functions of the state …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316384
A small but ambitious literature uses affine arbitrage-free models to estimate jointly U.S. Treasury term premiums and the term structure of equity risk premiums. Within this approach, this paper identifies the parameter restrictions that are consistent with a simple dividend discount model,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010222892
pronounced for USTs given data on ten other previously unexamined government bond markets. Second, BABgov appears robust when … government bond markets remains ambiguous. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010467093
I present a production-based general equilibrium model that jointly prices bond and stock returns. The model produces … time-varying correlation between stock and long-term default-free real bond returns that changes in both magnitude and sign …-flow) shocks produce comovement of bond and stock returns and positive term premium. The relative strength of these two mechanisms …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012904335
We extract cycles from the term spread and study their role for predicting the equity premium using linear models. When properly extracted, the trend of the term spread is a strong and robust out-of-sample equity premium predictor, both from a statistical and an economic point of view. It...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012865561
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013397895
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009411138
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011799154
the time-varying correlation of US stock and bond returns. Key ingredients are time-varying first and second moments of … bond returns. High levels of macro volatility in the late 1970s and early 1980s caused stock and bond returns to comove …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014209829