This paper examines the ability of bond and stock markets to predict subsequent GDP growth over a range of horizons for twelve international countries. The results, using linear, probit, time- and regime-varying in-sample regressions and out-of-sample forecasting, confirm the view that both...

This paper proposes the mixed frequency conditional beta. We employ the MIDAS framework to decompose market betas into high and low frequency components. The total mixed frequency beta is the weighted average of these two components. Then, we analyze the macroeconomic determinants of stock...

Despite widespread media interest in bull and bear markets, academic research that seeks to formally define bull markets is almost non-existent. This paper defines bull and bear markets in relation to a simple model of mean return regimes, and implements the definition using two formal turning...

We derive lower and upper bounds on the conditional market autocorrelation index at various investment horizons without using the precise form of the utility function. The bounds are derived in terms of option prices and can be computed at daily frequency for any given horizon. The bounds...

We consider whether key financial variables predict macroeconomic series and if any predictive power for output growth is also seen in consumption or investment growth. Such information will allow the use of financial markets as a leading indicator for macroeconomic performance. Full sample...

India is taken into account a high potential investment destination all-over the world even though it has some challenges like political, social, cultural complexities.Wide literature survey is available on the macroeconomic factors affecting the Indian stock market volatility. There is a...

This study investigates stock price movements in response to macroeconomic shocks, allowing for asymmetry in this relationship. Given Ferson's (1989) finding that large and small stocks can exhibit different risk behaviors, we examine the behaviors of the KOSPI and KOSDAQ stock markets in...

Stock market return is one of financial variables that contain information to forecast real activity such as industrial production and real GDP growth. However, it is still controversial that stock market return can have a predictive content on real activity. This paper attempts to investigate...

This study examines the relationship between the stock market and selected macroeconomic variables in Nigeria. The all share index was used as a proxy for the stock market while inflation, interest and exchange rates were the macroeconomic variables selected. Employing error correction model, it...

The study investigates the relationships between the Indian stock market index (BSE Sensex) and five macroeconomic variables, namely, industrial production index, wholesale price index, money supply, treasury bills rates and exchange rates over the period 1994:04–2011:04. Johansen's...