We study the impact of the 1918 Spanish Flu on U.S. stock prices. We use the death rate to control for the impact of the global pandemic and war news reported in the New York Times to capture the positive effects of the end of World War I on stock prices. Using a new weekly hand collected NYSE...

The accuracy of U.S. stock return forecasts based on the cyclically-adjusted P/E (CAPE) ratio has deteriorated since 1985. The issue is not the CAPE ratio, but CAPE regressions that assume it reverts mechanically to its long-run average. Our approach conditions mean reversion in the CAPE ratio...

Predicting long-term equity market returns is of great importance for investors to strategically allocate their assets. We apply machine learning methods to forecast 10-year-ahead U.S. stock returns and compare the results to traditional Shiller regression-based forecasts more commonly used in...

Global equity markets experienced a significantly negative return of over 4.7 percent on June 24, 2016 in response to news of Britain's decision (BREXIT) to leave the European Union. Stock market indices for members of the European Union were hard hit with nearly all experiencing significantly...