We investigate the informational content of credit default swap (CDS) spreads for future volatility of (firm) assets and equity. In the cross-section, CDS spreads are significantly more informative about future asset than equity volatility. The informational content of historical and option...

We introduce a new approach to measuring riskiness in the equity market. We propose option implied and physical measures of riskiness and investigate their performance in predicting future market returns. The predictive regressions indicate a positive and significant relation between...

We propose options' implied and physical measures of riskiness and investigate their performance in predicting future returns on the U.S. equity market. The predictive regressions indicate a positive and significant relation between time-varying riskiness and expected market returns. The...

We document the negative effect of stock liquidity on default risk for a sample of 46 countries. We further find that default risk declines following the introduction of the Directive on Markets in Financial Instruments (MiFID)—an exogenous shock that increases liquidity. The effect of...

This study is motivated by the continuing popularity of the Altman Z-score as a measure of distress risk. Altman first introduced the ‘Z' score in 1968 and 50 years later it is still going strong as a means to predicting bankruptcy. During these 50 years, academicians have studied the...

The relationship between the stock-market implication of a bankrupt firm's prospect and the unsecured creditors' recovery rate is often overlooked as they are seemingly unrelated to each other. However, if the APR is strictly applied, the existing shareholders of a bankrupt firm will not be...

This paper investigates the impact of the news announcement of the Lehman Brothers' (LBs) bankruptcy on the performance of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) sectors and financial industries. Based on descriptive index level results, Bartram and Bodnar (2009) conclude that the reaction of all...

In 2008, AIG found itself on the brink of failure and required the Federal Reserve to step in with billions of dollars of taxpayer money. The causes of AIG's collapse have been described in numerous articles and official reports since then. Albeit some nuances, all analyzes point to AIG's credit...

We consider bankruptcy announcements of large financial institutions in the US and examine their impact on an international sample of 66 stock market indices. Employing an event-study methodology, we find that stock markets exhibit strong adverse reaction in the aftermath of such announcements....

Bankrupt firms' stock displays unique lottery-like characteristics: for only a few cents per stock one can engage in an investment strategy that offers a low probability of huge future reward, and a very high probability of a small loss. Kumar (2009 a) shows that this type of stock is likely to...