In this paper I examine whether one can use analyst forecasts of macroeconomic variables to improve investors ex-ante allocation of wealth between stocks and bonds. Such forecasts provide a forward-looking approach which I find improves investor's information set for the myopic stock-bond...

The paper presents an evolutionary economic model for the price evolution of stocks. Treating a stock market as a self-organized system governed by a fast purchase process and slow variations of demand and supply the model suggests that the short term price distribution has the form a logistic...

Using a semi-supervised topic model on 7,000,000 New York Times articles spanning 160 years, we test whether topics of media discourse predict future stock and bond market returns to test rational and behavioral hypotheses about market valuation of disaster risk. Focusing on media discourse...

Vector Auto Regression (VAR) and Beysian Vector Auto-Regression (BVAR) models are used to trace the dynamic linkages across daily returns of stock market indexes in the Middle East and the United States, and to investigate how a shock in one market is transmitted to other markets. The Middle...

In this new era of economic growth, the exceptional increase in the crude oil prices is one of the significant developments that affecting the global economy. Crude oil is an important raw material used for manufacturing many goods, so that an extraordinary increase in the price of oil is bound...

This paper first uses the CAPM to explore the relationship between market β and weekly stock returns of 14 publicly listed banks in China's Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share markets for the period of 2007 to 2009. The results seem to follow the assumption of the CAPM theory. All constant...

The global financial crisis, after brewing for a while, actually started to demonstrate its consequences and encroachments in the middle of 2007 and into 2008. During this period the world stock markets have fallen, large financial institutions have been collapsed. From 2008 to 2010 it reflected...

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused severe disruption to economic activity worldwide. This note analyzes what happened to the aggregate U.S. stock market during this period, including implications for both short and long-horizon investors. We identify bull and bear market regimes including their...

In this paper, we have examined stock market linkages between Greater China and the US and Japan in terms of volatility and price spillovers, yielding a few findings, with most of them either offering new evidence or challenging the results in the previous research, and the rest consolidating...

This study employs the recently developed Lagrange multiplier-based causality-in-variance test by Hafner and Herwartz (2006), to determine the volatility spillovers between interest rates and stock returns for the US, the euro area, the UK, and Japan. The investigation pays careful attention to...