This paper examines return predictability when the investor is uncertain about the right state variables. A novel feature of the model averaging approach used in this paper is to account for finite-sample bias of the coefficients in the predictive regressions. Drawing on an extensive...

This paper considers the role of foreign investors in developed-country equity markets. It presents a quantitative model of trading that is built around two new assumptions: (i) both the foreign and domestic investor populations contain investors of different sophistication, and (ii) investor...

This paper conducts tests of the random walk hypothesis and market efficiency for 14 national public real estate markets. Random walk properties of equity prices influence the return dynamics and determine the trading strategies of investors. To examine the stochastic properties of local real...

In the framework of small-scale agent-based financial market models, the paper starts out from the concept of structural stochastic volatility, which derives from different noise levels in the demand of fundamentalists and chartists and the time-varying market shares of the two groups. It...

The paper proposes an elementary agent-based asset pricing model that, invoking the two trader types of fundamentalists and chartists, comprises four features: (i) price determination by excess demand; (ii) a herding mechanism that gives rise to a macroscopic adjustment equation for the market...

This study proposes a process for observing evidence of insider trading in the Athens Stock Exchange (ASE). This is performed by building an environment which, based upon previous research, common sense and information technology, may be used for observing such evidence. It is designed to be...

This paper uses proprietary data to evaluate the efficacy of single-stock circuit breakers on the London Stock Exchange during July and August 2011. We exploit exogenous variation in the length of the uncrossing periods that follow a trading suspension to estimate the effect of auction length on...

We analyze the impact of the pro-Russian conflict on stock returns in Russia and the Ukraine during the period November 21, 2013 to September 29, 2014. We utilize a newly created indicator for the degree of (de-)escalation based on an Internet search for conflict-related news. We find that...

Stock prices are one of the most volatile economic variables and forecasting stock prices and their returns has proved very challenging, if not impossible. In this paper, we apply a battery of linear and nonlinear models to forecast the returns in nine international stock exchanges for the...

The financial markets stylized facts, volatility and its relationship with returns tested empirically in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE). ARMA- ARCH type models including two symmetric conditional hetroscedastic models; ARMA (1, 1) - ARCH (1) and ARMA (1, 1) - GARCH (1, 1) and two asymmetric...