Human judgments are systematically affected by various biases and distortions. The main goal of our study is to analyze the effects of five well-documented behavioral biases—namely, the disposition effect, herd behavior, availability heuristic, gambler’s fallacy and hot hand fallacy—on the...

Human judgments are systematically affected by various biases and distortions. The main goal of our study is to analyze the effects of five well-documented behavioral biases — namely, the disposition effect, herd behavior, availability heuristic, gambler's fallacy and hot hand fallacy — on...

The US Treasury effectively ”owns” about 24% of the stocks held by high income US taxable investors. Through the capital gains tax, Uncle Sam has an effective exposure of more than $1 trillion of equities. And this huge-but-silent investor might be about to get a lot bigger if capital gains...

We introduce a novel social media sentiment measure, the video sentiment index (VSI), created from over nine billion popular user-generated videos across 48 countries. VSI is significantly associated with mood proxies induced by seasonal factors, cloud coverage, and COVID-related restrictions....

This paper applies a new measure of aggregate investor confidence, which extracts feedback impulses from stock market data. According to the measure, aggregate investor confidence is positively associated with the profitability of momentum strategies. In a 1927-2014 U.S. sample, aggregate...

Overconfidence is one of the most robust findings in the field of Behavioural Finance, and is associated with excessive trading and risk taking among market participants. Assessment of the level of confidence in their abilities and skills is well-documented for individuals. However, the...

The fundamental indicators of stocks include information as well as the effects of noise and bias on the stock prices; however, identifying the effects of noise and bias is generally difficult. In this article, I present the true fundamentals hypothesis based on rational expectations and detect...

Optimal investment of firms implies that expected stock returns are tied with the expected marginal benefit of investment divided by the marginal cost of investment. Winners have higher expected growth and expected marginal productivity (two major components of the marginal benefit of...