This paper provides a comprehensive statistical and economic evidence on the forecasting power of local-currency equity and bond returns in predicting exchange rate returns. We first construct out-of-sample (OOS) forecasts using various model specifications of equity and bond returns, and assess...

Motivated by recent US evidence, we evaluate the predictive power of changes in the weight of large firms in the aggregate stock market ("Goliath vs David" (GVD)) for Swiss stock market returns and bond market returns. Previous research suggests that the asset return dynamics in the US and...

Previous research document the existence of long-run trends in comovements in the stock and bond markets. Following these findings, this paper examines possible trends in stock- bond return correlations. To this end, we introduce a trend component into a smooth transition regression (STR) model...

We study the relation between international mutual fund flows and the different return components of aggregate equity and bond markets. First, we decompose international equity and bond market returns into changes in expectations of future real cash payments, interest rates, exchange rates, and...

We study the relation between international mutual fund flows and the different return components of aggregate equity and bond markets. First, we decompose international equity and bond market returns into changes in expectations of future real cash payments, interest rates, exchange rates, and...

An alternative derivation of the yield curve based on entropy or the loss of information as it is communicated through time is introduced. Given this focus on entropy growth in communication the Shannon entropy will be utilized. Additionally, Shannon entropy's close relationship to the...

The benefits of using flight-to-safety (FTS) in volatility forecasting are assessed within a multivariate GARCH framework. In particular, we propose realized semi-covariance between falling equity and rising safe haven returns as a proxy of FTS and we use it to model the conditional distribution...

Investors rely on the stock-bond correlation for a variety of tasks, such as forming optimal portfolios, designing hedging strategies, and assessing risk. Most investors estimate the stock-bond correlation simply by extrapolating the historical correlation of monthly returns and assume that this...

Purpose - The authors explore the relationship between the exchange rate, bond yield and the stock market as well as the effect of capital market dynamics on the exchange rate before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Design/methodology/approach - The authors employ a non-linear autoregressive...

We study the correlation between pairs of bond and stock markets in Canada and the United States between January 1998 and December 2006 in the framework of Diagonal-BEKK models. Our research question is whether monetary policy action and communication by the Bank of Canada and the Federal...