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Releases of key macroeconomic indicators are closely watched by financial markets. We investigate the role of expectation dispersion and economic uncertainty for the stock-market reaction to indicator releases. We find that the strength of the financial market response to news decreases with the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012404549
Releases of key macroeconomic indicators are closely watched by financial markets. We investigate the role of expectation dispersion and economic uncertainty for the stock-market reaction to indicator releases. We find that the strength of the financial market response to news decreases with the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012404647
Uncertainty and monetary policy decisions in the U.S. interact with one another. Contrary to the common notion that FOMC announcements resolve a non-trivial amount of economic uncertainty, we find that the announcement commands a sizable left-tail premium, which builds up a few days in advance....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013228844
of long-term stock market volatility. When long-term volatility is high, stock returns are more sensitive to news, and …-linear present value framework with a two-component volatility model for the conditional variance of cash flow news and allowing for … volatility feedback. In our model, innovations to the long-term volatility component are the most important driver of discount …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014440865
In this paper, we examine the relationship between idiosyncratic volatility and future returns around the firm … volatility is more strongly negative compared to news idiosyncratic volatility. Such findings imply that limited arbitrage cannot … fully explain the negative pricing of idiosyncratic volatility in the Chinese stock market. These results are robust after …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014500235
I propose a new model-free method for estimating long-run changes in expected volatility using VIX futures contracts …. The method is applied to measure the effect on stock market volatility of scheduled macroeconomic news announcements. I … when policy uncertainty is higher than average. Real side macro announcements increase long-run volatility during times of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012846253
This paper examines the effect of macroeconomic news announcements (MNA) on the stock market. Stocks exhibit a strong positive response to major MNA: 1 standard deviation of MNA surprise causes 11-25 bps higher returns. This response is highly time-varying and is weaker during periods of high...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014235404
Beaudry and Portier (2006) provide support for the "news view" of the business cycle, using a vector error correction model. We show that this result hinges on a cointegrating relationship between TFP and stock prices that is not stationary, thus making the estimates not reliable. If we alter...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012181050
using inflation-induced equity market volatility (EMV) to better account for bond price determinants. The regression model …, a GED-GARCH (1,1) procedure, is adopted to deal with the volatility clustering and fat tail features in bond return … estimation. The testing results indicate that the inflation rate has a negative effect on bond returns across different …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014436363
volatility of Borsa Istanbul 100 Index (BIST-100). Sample data cover the period from January 2008 to December 2017. The main … nonlinear volatility models (symmetric and asymmetric Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity [GARCH …]-type models) were used to model and estimate BIST-100 volatility in response to political news. The findings of the paper …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012131511