A small but ambitious literature uses affine arbitrage-free models to estimate jointly U.S. Treasury term premiums and the term structure of equity risk premiums. Within this approach, this paper identifies the parameter restrictions that are consistent with a simple dividend discount model,...

This paper provides an empirical study on the predictability of implied volatility using dataset collected from the London over-the-counter currency option market. The present work is motivated by the lack of empirical studies that address implied volatility characteristics across various...

We show that log-dividends (d) and log-prices (p) are cointegrated, but, instead of de facto assuming the stationarity of the classical log dividend–price ratio, we allow the data to reveal the cointegration vector between d and p. We define the modified dividend–price ratio (mdp), as the...

We proxy uncertainty in the stock, oil and gold markets with the variance risk premia, extracted from futures and option contracts. We observe that an independent increase in the stock, oil or gold markets uncertainty coincides with negative returns in different industries. However, only the...

A small but ambitious literature uses affine arbitrage-free models to estimate jointly U.S. Treasury term premiums and the term structure of equity risk premiums. Within this approach, this paper identifies the parameter restrictions that are consistent with a simple dividend discount model,...

We propose a novel measure of the ex-ante commodity downside-risk premium (CDP) for each commodity based on a term structure model of commodity futures. Our theory-based CDP, capturing forward-looking information in the futures markets, outperforms well-known characteristics in explaining the...

This paper examines how the Fed's monetary policy decisions affect the implied volatility of the S&P 500 index. The results show that stock market uncertainty is significantly affected by the Fed's policy decisions. In particular, we find that implied volatility generally decreases after FOMC...

This paper explores differences in the impact of equally large positive and negative surprise return shocks in the aggregate U.S. stock market on: 1) the volatility predictions of asymmetric time series models, 2) implied volatility, and 3) realized volatility. Both asymmetric time series models...

Geopolitical events are widely reported in the press and may influence the risk premium demanded by investors in addition to demand and supply of energy resources. Using the daily geopolitical risk index of Caldara and Iacoviello (2018), we demonstrate that geopolitical risk plays an important...

This paper has investigated the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) through the concept of lead-lag relationship of the future market prices and spot market prices in the context of Pakistani stock market. The study has used data of randomly selected one hundred and forty firms listed on the...