This paper presents and exemplifies results developed for cointegration analysis with state space models by Bauer and Wagner in a series of papers. Unit root processes, cointegration and polynomial cointegration are defined. Based upon these definitions the major part of the paper discusses how...

For many economic time-series variables that are observed regularly and frequently, for example weekly, the underlying activity is not distributed uniformly across the year. For the aim of predicting annual data, one may consider temporal aggregation into larger subannual units based on an...

Plug-in vehicles powered by renewable energies are a viable way to reduce local and total emissions and could also support a highly efficient grid operation. Indirect control by variable tariffs is one option to link charging or even discharging time with the grid load and the renewable energy...

In this paper I study policy responses to an increase in post-merger distress. I consider the integration of regions and nations as a merger of populations which I view as a revision of social space, and I identify the effect of the merger on aggregate distress. The paper is based on the premise...

A class of adaptive sampling methods is introduced for efficient posterior and predictive simulation. The proposed methods are robust in the sense that they can handle target distributions that exhibit non-elliptical shapes such as multimodality and skewness. The basic method makes use of...

Estimation of the volatility of time series has taken off since the introduction of the GARCH and stochastic volatility models. While variants of the GARCH model are applied in scores of articles, use of the stochastic volatility model is less widespread. In this articleit is argued that one...

We study the existence problem of a zero point of a function defined on a finite set of elements of the integer lattice of the n-dimensional Euclidean space. It is assumed that the set is integrally convex, which implies that the convex hull of the set can be subdivided in simplices such that...

A situation in which a finite set of players can obtain certain payoffs by cooperation can be described by a cooperative game with transferable utility, or simply a TU-game. A (single-valued) solution for TU-games assigns a payoff distribution to every TU-game. A well-known solution is the...

We apply the splitting method to three well-known counting problems, namely 3-SAT, random graphs with prescribed degrees, and binary contingency tables. We present an enhanced version of the splitting method based on the capture-recapture technique, and show by experiments the superiority of...

This discussion paper led to a publication in 'Computational Statistics & Data Analysis' 56(11), pp. 3398-1414.Important choices for efficient and accurate evaluation of marginal likelihoods by means of Monte Carlo simulation methods are studied for the case of highly non-elliptical posterior...