This paper shows evidence of informed trading in the natural gas futures market before gas inventory announcements. We examine whether traders can predict the upcoming announcement by processing public information. The results show that the difference between the median forecast of analysts with...

Before shares of a company are sold to the general public on a security exchange for the first time, regulatory publication requirements force U.S. firms to file an initial public offering prospectus. While accounting information in IPO filings are closely studied by investors and analysts,...

What share of asset price movements is driven by news? We build a large, time-stamped event database covering scheduled macro news as well as unscheduled events. We find that news account for about 50% of all bond and stock price movements in the United States and euro area since 2002,...

This study investigates security analysts' reactions to public management guidance and assesses whether managers successfully guide analysts toward beatable earnings targets. We use a panel dataset between 1995 and 2001 to examine the fiscal-quarter-specific determinants of management guidance...

How does a public announcement about a company exploring its potential sale or merger (“strategic alternatives”) affect the company and its shareholders? This study provides the first look at some of the positive and negative consequences to this unique disclosure of strategic alternatives....

We characterize the effect of short selling costs on interactions between informed and uninformed speculators, showing how this dynamic impacts corporate decisions. Manipulation coexists with informed trading at low shorting costs, reducing price informativeness and firm investment. Manipulation...

Revisions of consensus forecasts of macroeconomic variables positively predict announcement day forecast errors, whereas stock market returns on forecast revision days negatively predict announcement day returns. A dynamic noisy rational expectations model with periodic macroeconomic...

This paper addresses the question of how to measure market participants’ intra-day risk-neutral expectations. In contrast to widely used quotes data, we present a novel step-by-step approach to estimate intra-day risk-neutral densities (RND) by only using option trades data. Based on a unique...

This study examines the effect of option volume relative to stock volume (O/S) on market response to earnings surprises. The market reaction per unit of earnings surprise is lower for firms that have high O/S prior to earnings announcement than for firms with low O/S prior to earnings...

The stock market volume decreases in anticipation of FOMC announcements and increases afterward. I find, in the cross-section, that stocks with higher market risk exposure experience greater volume changes. I also find that volume dynamics around FOMC announcements are unlikely to be...