A great number of academic papers evaluate the potential for incentive-driven bias in sell-side analysts' earnings forecasts. Yet bias does not necessarily invalidate a forecast, nor does it impinge on its relative quality. We find that analysts' forecasts are optimistic relative to recently...

VAA (Vigilant Asset Allocation) is a dual-momentum based investment strategy with a vigorous crash protection and a fast momentum filter. Dual momentum combines absolute (trendfollowing) and relative (strength) momentum. Compared to the traditional dual momentum approaches, we have replaced the...

In this paper we introduce a new jump-diffusion model for stock prices, which takes into account over and under-reaction of the market to incoming news. The jumps' impact on the assets dynamics is twofold: on one hand we use a Poisson process as a driver to obtain discontinuous trajectories and...

I investigate whether the relation between investor sentiment and profitable trading strategies is due to short sale constraints. I find that the average security in these strategies is not hard-to-short. Furthermore, the short leg does not appear to be harder to short or more overvalued than...

I document evidence that informed investors form expectations not only on directional stock returns but also on the timing of information release. Specifically, I find that equity options contain stock information at horizons commensurate with their maturities, and call this unique pattern the...

We investigate whether a simple long-short weekly trading strategy based on mispricing among ETNs generates profits in excess of the S&P 500 over the sample period of June 6, 2006 to January 30, 2012. Ignoring transaction costs, liquidity, and short selling constraints we find the following. (1)...

When value and glamour stocks missed earnings expectation targets, what happened to their stock prices over the following year? Prices of value stocks increased when earnings expectations were beat and missed - and even when business fundamentals deteriorated. Glamour stocks behaved more...

The battle between proponents of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis and champions of behavioral finance has never been more pitched, and little consensus exists as to which side is winning or the implications for investment management and consulting. In this article, I review the case for and...

We establish a link between firms managing investors' performance expectations, earnings announcement premia, and cyclical patterns (i.e., seasonalities) in returns. Firms that are more likely to manage expectations toward beatable levels predictably earn lower returns before, and higher returns...

We test the hypothesis that retail investors' attraction to lottery stocks induces overvaluation, and is amplified by high attention and social interactions. The lottery premium (negative abnormal returns) is stronger for high-retail-ownership stocks—especially those that also have high...