In this paper, we develop and examine a simple interactive agent‐based model, where the distribution of returns generated from the model takes into account two stylized facts about financial markets： fat tails and volatility clustering. Our results indicate that the risk tolerance of...

This paper develops textual sentiment measures for China's stock market by extracting the textual tone of 60 million messages posted on a major online investor forum in China from 2008 to 2018. We conduct sentiment extraction by using both conventional dictionary methods based on customized word...

Using hand-collected TV programming data and intra-day trading from China, we compare the trading, liquidity, and returns of on-show and off-show stocks in the same sector. Our difference-in-difference analysis reveals that post-show, off-show stocks experience significant improvements in...

Using hand-collected TV programming data and intra-day trading data from China, we compare the trading, liquidity, and returns of on-show and off-show stocks in the same sector. Our difference-in-difference analysis reveals that post-show, off-show stocks experience significant improvements in...

We document a robust positive relationship between the belief dispersion about macroeconomic conditions among household investors and the stock market trading volume, using more than 30 years of household survey data and a novel approach to measuring belief dispersions. Notably, such a...

The 2017 bubble on the cryptocurrency market recalls our memory in the dot-com bubble, during which hard-to-measure fundamentals and investors' illusion for brand new technologies led to overvalued prices. Benefiting from the massive increase in the volume of messages published on social media...

One of the most popular investment anecdotes relates how Isaac Newton, after cashing in some large early gains, staked his fortune on the success of the South Sea Company of 1720 and lost heavily in the ensuing crash. However, this tale is based on only a few scraps of hard evidence, some of...

We define a sentiment indicator based on option prices, valuation ratios and interest rates. The indicator can be interpreted as a lower bound on the expected growth in fundamentals that a rational investor would have to perceive in order to be happy to hold the market. The lower bound was...

We examine overconfidence among equity mutual fund managers. While overconfidencehas been extensively documented among retail investors, evidence fromprofessional investors is scarce. Consistent with theories of overconfidence, we findthat fund managers trade more after good past performance....

The correlation of returns for various equity asset classes has been high. In addition, the range or "dispersion" of returns across asset classes - and across sectors within those asset classes - has been low. These factors have made it difficult for active managers to outperform. But dispersion...