We develop statistical methods to detect informed trading in options markets. We apply these methods to 31 companies from various sectors over 14 years analyzing approximately 9.6 million option prices. We find that option informed trading tends to cluster prior to certain events, takes place...

This appendix extends the empirical results in Chesney, Crameri, and Mancini (2011). Informed trading activities on put and call options are analyzed for 19 companies in the banking and insurance sectors from January 1996 to September 2009. Our empirical findings suggest that certain events such...

I develop and test a model to study the interaction between the commodity and stock markets. This study attempts to clarify the debate about the effect of financialization on commodity markets. Theoretically, the futures risk premium is determined by hedging pressure, stock market returns, and...

The study investigates whether behavioural theory is a superior explanation for short-term return–volatility relationship than traditional leverage and volatility feedback hypotheses. Using VAR and quantile regression frameworks, the study shows that behavioural theory explains the...

We investigate the market-compatible degree of agent heterogeneity by identifying and analyzing the full range of conditional beliefs consistent with observed asset prices and good-deal bounds. Our methodology neither makes assumptions on underlying processes nor does it use survey data. It can...

We measure investors' short- and long-term stock-return expectations using both options and survey data. These expectations at different horizons reveal what investors think their own short-term expectations will be in the future, or forward return expectations. While contemporaneous short-term...

Prediction (or information) markets are markets where participants trade contracts whose payoff depends on unknown future events. Studying prediction markets allows to avoid many problems, which arise in some artificially designed behavioral experiments investigating collective decision making...

In this paper we study the intraday dynamics of E-mini S&P 500 index futures and the option trading strategies employing the weekly E-mini S&P 500 index futures options. We make a number of contributions to the literature in the area of intra-day equity index futures return predictability and...

We use weekly survey data on short-term and medium-term sentiment of German investors to estimate the parameters of a stochastic model of opinion dynamics. The bivariate nature of our data set also allows us to explore the interaction between the two hypothesized opinion formation processes,...

Status quo bias is a systematic cognitive error which makes it difficult for individuals to make decisions independently of the currently dominant situation. This study pursues the question of whether bond market analysts are affected by status quo bias. We evaluated interest rate forecast...