Bonetto, Federico; Cheriyan, Vinod; Kleywegt, Anton J. - In: Journal of risk and financial management : JRFM 11 (2018) 1, pp. 1-41
forecasting future price changes, and the nature of their confidence when price changes are forecast, determine whether price …Different forecasting behaviors affect investors’ trading decisions and lead to qualitatively different asset price … significantly from the fundamental value. The rational expectations hypothesis seems inconsistent with the observed forecasts. The …