The Baker and Wurgler (2006) sentiment index purports to measure irrational investor sentiment, while the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is designed to largely reflect fundamentals. Removing this fundamental component from the Baker and Wurgler index creates an index of investor...

Do timing and time diversification improve the average investor?s stock market return? Contrary to literature?s scenario of wealthy investors, average investors invest each month over life. Many purchases prevent investors from buying at peak, but horizons decrease, giving latter investments...

We report strong evidence that changes of momentum, i.e. "acceleration", defined as the first difference of successive returns, provide better performance and higher explanatory power than momentum. The corresponding Γ-factor explains the momentum-sorted portfolios entirely but not the reverse....

This paper investigates investment strategies that exploit the low-beta anomaly. Although the notion of buying low-beta stocks and selling high-beta stocks is natural, a choice is necessary with respect to the relative weighting of high-beta stocks and low-beta stocks in the investment...

A risk management strategy is proposed as being robust to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) by selecting a Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecast that combines the forecasts of different VaR models. The robust forecast is based on the median of the point VaR forecasts of a set of conditional volatility...

We construct investor sentiment indices for six major stock markets and decompose them into one global and six local indices. In a validation test, we find that relative sentiment is correlated with the relative prices of dual-listed companies. Global sentiment is a contrarian predictor of...

Context modifies the influence of any trading indicator. Ceteris paribus, a buyer would be more cautious buying in a selling market context than in a buying market. In order for automated, adaptive systems like neural networks to better emulate and assist human decision-making, they need to be...

The authors explore the risk-return properties of simple momentum strategies in six major government-bond markets and find that trend-following investment rules generate positive information ratios in the 1987-2011 sample period. They simulate the combination of momentum portfolios with...

Although financial literature presents ambiguous evidence about the predicting value of fundamental and technical variables in stock markets, we find that evolving trading models based on fundamental variables substantially reduce the risk of investing in stocks. This reduction is so generous...

In a panel survey of private investors, we show that investors use their beliefs about the stock market expectations of others in their investment decisions. These second-order beliefs have a positive effect on investing beyond own risk and return expectations, but they are inaccurate and...