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We designed four observational learning experiments to identify the key channels that, along with Bayes … observational learning accounts for the phenomenon of excessive herding, it captures well herd behavior with medium quality signals …-rational inferences, drive herd behavior. In Experiment 1, unobserved, whose actions remain private, learn from the public actions made in …
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We analyze a game theoretic model of social learning about a consumption good with endogenous timing and heterogeneous … increase the probability of herding on consumption of both high and low quality goods …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014191123
There are many important decision problems where learning through experimentation is costly or impossible. In these …. In this paper, we design an investment game which allows us to study the influence of selection when learning from others … degree of bias due to selection neglect increases when other decision makers become more informed, or become more rational …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011982107
We experimentally investigate how price expectations are formed in a large asset market where subjects' only task is to forecast the future price of a risky asset. The realized prices depend on these expectations. We observe small (6 participants) and large markets (about 100 participants). In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011979625
individual's intrinsic ability and on an external variable. We analyze the mistakes made by decision-makers who hold inaccurate … external factors if they fail. They are too easily dissatisfied with their environment, which leads them to experiment in … variable environments and revise their self-confidence over time. In contrast, underconfident decision-makers might be trapped …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011930663
heuristic, gambler’s fallacy and hot hand fallacy—on the mechanisms of stock market decision making and, in particular, the … decision-making technique will most likely accept other techniques as well. Furthermore, we determine that the correlation … on simplifying decision-making techniques in general or to reject all of them. Alternatively, this finding may suggest …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009770254
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As expectations are driven by information, its selection is central in explaining common knowledge building and unraveling in financial markets. This paper addresses this information selection problem by proposing imitation as a key mechanism to explain opinion dynamics. Behavioral and cognitive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012928480