Return chasing is often cited as one of the primary behavioral foibles of investors, resulting in sub-par returns. Surprisingly, the literature does not provide a generally accepted and testable description of return chasing. This paper proposes a simple definition. It then describes how return...

Fixed income investors favor higher yields with lower risk. Our objective in this paper is to outline an active fixed income strategy that maximizes yield and is protected against major risk factors affecting fixed income securities. In particular, we look at interest rate risk, credit risk,...

Continuously rebalanced long-short trades are similar to highly levered trades in that their PNL profile depends not only on the final distribution of return, but also on the realized co-variance structure of the asset pair. It's easily possible for both orientations of a rebalanced long-short...

We show how one can use deep neural networks with macro-economic data in conjunction with price-volume data in a walk-forward setting to do tactical asset allocation. Low cost publicly traded ETFs corresponding to major asset classes (equities, fixed income, real estate) and geographies (US,...

The US Treasury effectively ”owns” about 24% of the stocks held by high income US taxable investors. Through the capital gains tax, Uncle Sam has an effective exposure of more than $1 trillion of equities. And this huge-but-silent investor might be about to get a lot bigger if capital gains...

The purpose of this paper is to examine the existence and persistence of momentum, “the premier anomaly” according to Eugene Fama, as a source of out-performance in the Indian equity markets. We test a set of relative-strength strategies on twenty years of Indian equity markets data to...

In the past 20 years, momentum or trend following strategies have become an established part of the investor toolbox. We introduce a new way of analyzing momentum strategies by looking at the information ratio (IR, average return divided by standard deviation). We calculate the theoretical IR of...

This paper outlines a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy that takes signals from the credit markets and applies them to the stock market. A power model is built using the Russell 2000 equity index and the Bank of America/Merrill Lynch High Yield B index. This model is then used in a...

Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), as developed by Markowitz (1952) and others, is often described as a nice but impractical theory. The full MPT framework is very sensitive to parameters like the expected returns which are estimated with errors, resulting in allocations with even larger errors....

VAA (Vigilant Asset Allocation) is a dual-momentum based investment strategy with a vigorous crash protection and a fast momentum filter. Dual momentum combines absolute (trendfollowing) and relative (strength) momentum. Compared to the traditional dual momentum approaches, we have replaced the...