This note is based on a recent confidence index introduced in the context of compensating probability factors for deviations of subjective probability measures from equivalent martingale measures. The index is adjusted for loss gain probability spreads, and it explains momentum in confidence. We...

This paper studies the dynamics of stock market volatility and retail investor attention measured by internet search queries. We find a strong co-movement of stock market indices' realized volatility and the search queries for their names. Furthermore, Granger causality is bi-directional: high...

The betting market for the Women's National Basketball Association (WNBA) is a thin financial market, which does not attract much interest from sports bettors. Given these characteristics, it is possible that profitable wagering strategies could exist for informed bettors of the WNBA. Using...

Using a unique data set that contains the complete ownership structure of the German stock market, we study the momentum and contrarian trading of different investor groups. Foreign investors and financial institutions, and especially mutual funds, are momentum traders, whereas private...

Using a unique data set that contains the complete ownership structure of the German stock market, we study the momentum and contrarian trading of different investor groups. Foreign investors and financial institutions, and especially mutual funds, are momentum traders, whereas private...

Anonymous trading is the norm in today's financial markets but there are a few exceptions. We study one such case, the OMX Nordic Exchanges (Stockholm, Helsinki, Copenhagen, and Reykjavik) that have traditionally been more transparent than most other markets. On June 2, 2008 OMX Nordic switched...

This paper studies the unique statistical features of multi-period returns vs. single-period returns and examines their implications on I derive a closed form representation of the dynamic relation between winning probability and holding time, and then apply the theoretical results to studying...

This survey introduces and reviews the field of behavioral finance. It outlines the traditional finance approach, which builds upon rational acting investors, its assumptions, and its shortcomings. Moreover, it surveys the main findings from psychology and sociology that contrast with this...

We study whether firm name affects investor attention and thereby firm valuation. Some Chinese firms listed on U.S. stock exchanges have the word “China” or “Chinese” included in their company names (“China-name stocks”), whereas others do not (“non-China-name stocks”). During...