is mainly strategic or whether it also contains an element of cognitive bias. Despite the fact that forecast errors lack … stock returns, our new tests based on selection bias (SB1 and SB2), in conjunction with an analysis of abnormal trading … volume, confirm the presence of both cognitive bias and strategic behaviour in analyst forecasts. This shows that, although …

forecasts is found to be correlated with indicators of bias in a manner consistent with investors discounting optimistic …

groups more than forecasts by laypeople; I observe a home bias in all subject groups, which can be mitigated by information … signals; all subject groups expect lower forecast errors for financial professionals than for laypeople, hence I also find …