Individual investors' beliefs (return expectations and risk perceptions) drive investment decisions, with larger updates of beliefs leading to more active trading, hurting performance. We examine how framing of past performance information affects investors' belief formation. In particular, we...

Prior research shows that investors with smaller belief updates trade less actively, which positively affects their return performance. We examine the effect of different default frames of presenting past return information on investors' belief updating. In particular, we analyze whether...

The study at hand deals with the expectations of professional analysts and novices in the context of foreign exchange markets. We analyze the respective forecasting accuracy and our results indicate that there exist substantial differences between professional forecasts and judgmental forecasts...

A representative investor confronts two levels of model uncertainty. The investor has a set of well defined parametric “structured models” but does not know which of them is best. The investor also suspects that all of the structured models are misspecified. These uncertainties about...

Story-telling helps to define the human experience. Do people also use narratives to make sense of, and to act on, financial information? Three studies demonstrate that people's investment predictions and choices instead are by narrative thinking. Whereas neoclassical financial theory maintains...

We propose an extension of the class of rational expectations bubbles (REBs) to the more general rational beliefs setting of Kurz (1994a,b). In a potentially non-stationary but stationarizable environment, it is possible to hold more than one (small-r) “rational” expectation. When rational...

Confident investors trade more than less confident investors, but why? Prior research tests the ultimate relation between investor confidence and trading, but does not empirically examine the underlying mechanism that explains why confidence leads to trading. We complement the literature by...

We show in a simple framework that momentum trading can exist in equilibrium and momentum trading is profitable. Properties of the model fit the empirics well. First, the model captures in a parsimonious manner both short-term overreaction and long-term reversals. Second, it predicts that...

We analyze the influence of individuals' degree of extraversion and neuroticism on the determinants of their risk-taking behavior in investment decisions. As there are no studies that investigate the influence of personality traits on risk attitude, risk perception, and return expectations in...

Human judgments are systematically affected by various biases and distortions. The main goal of our study is to analyze the effects of five well-documented behavioral biases—namely, the disposition effect, herd behavior, availability heuristic, gambler’s fallacy and hot hand fallacy—on the...