We use weekly survey data on short-term and medium-term sentiment of German investors in order to study the causal relationship between investors' mood and subsequent stock price changes. In contrast to extant literature for other countries, a tri-variate vector autoregression for short-run...

We find that aggregate net equity fund flows are strongly negatively correlated with changes in expected future stock market volatility as measured by the VIX. Implying that investor purchase decisions are primarily driven by returns and sale decisions by risk perceptions, we further find that...

This paper investigates how technical trading systems exploit the momentum and reversal effects in the S&P 500 spot and futures market. The former is exploited by trend-following models, while the latter by contrarian models. In total, the performance of 2580 widely used models is analyzed. When...

This paper examines whether illiquidity is a determinant of monthly stock returns in the German market. Estimating time-series and cross-sectional models, we investigate the impact of illiquidity both on market returns and on individual stock returns. Illiquidity is approximated by five measures...

We examine the predictive effect of sentiment on the cross-section of stock returns across different economic states. The degree of mispricing and the subsequent price correction can be different between economic expansion and recession because of the limits of arbitrage and short sale...

This paper provides insight view of an investor mind dueling on proving the fact that a series of event in a company could cause a dramatic move on to practitioners who wish to forecast market returns based on event occurrences.Using 12 years (2006 to 2018) historical data of Foxconn Company...

We investigate investor's correlated attention as a determinant of excess stock market comovement. We propose a novel proxy, "co-attention", that measures the correlation in demand for market-wide information across stock markets approximated by the Google Search Volume Index (SVI). Our results...

The 2017 bubble on the cryptocurrency market recalls our memory in the dot-com bubble, during which hard-to-measure fundamentals and investors' illusion for brand new technologies led to overvalued prices. Benefiting from the massive increase in the volume of messages published on social media...

Stock return predictability by investor sentiment has been subject to constant updating, but reaching a decisive conclusion seems rather challenging as academic research relies heavily on US data. We provide fresh evidence on stock return predictability in an international setting and show that...

Divergence in investor beliefs is an important driver of the negative relation between option trading volume and future stock returns. We find a strong negative relation between disagreement-based option trades and future stock returns, and this relation is markedly amplified when the underlying...