Recent modeling developments have created tradeoffs between attribution-based models, models that rely on causal relationships, and “pure prediction models†such as neural networks. While forecasters have historically favored one technology or the other based on comfort or loyalty to a...

Using a score provided by Thomson Reuters to measure the tone of news articles, I construct a weekly measure of qualitative information. The measure predicts future returns over the next 13 weeks and mitigates short-term reversal in the weekly momentum strategy. A portfolio that takes a long...