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Periodic unobserved cycles in seasonal time series with an application to US unemployment

Koopman, Siem Jan; Ooms, Marius; Hindrayanto, Irma - 2006

This paper discusses identification, specification, estimation and forecasting for a general class of periodic … formulations are introduced for exact maximum likelihood estimation, component estimation and forecasting. Identification issues …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011350384

Analyzing Formal Jobless Recovery in Mexico (in Spanish)

Aguilera, Nelly; Quintana, María; Rábago, Paulina - 2011

This report analyzes the jobless recovery phenomenon observed in Mexico during the current and previous crisis. It analyzes the role of job creation and destruction in the economic cycle and researches different causes that might explain a jobless recovery. Some of these are structural change,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014185318

Unemployment Expectations and the Business Cycle

Tortorice, Daniel L. - 2011

I compare unemployment expectations from the Michigan Survey of Consumers to VAR forecastable movements in unemployment. I document three key facts. First, one-half to one-third of the population expects unemployment to rise when it is falling at the end of a recession even though the VAR...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013130533

Why Didn't the U.S. Unemployment Rate Rise at the End of WWII?

Fujita, Shigeru; Ramey, Valerie A.; Roded, Tal - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

This paper investigates why the U.S. unemployment rate rose only a few percentage points despite the dramatic decline in government spending and other upheaval at the end of World War II. Using a new longitudinal data set based on archival sources and government surveys, we study the many facets...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015094883

Entry and Exit, Unemployment, and the Business Cycle

Bernstein, Joshua; Richter, Alexander W.; Throckmorton, … - 2020

Establishment entry and exit is strongly correlated with output and unemployment. This paper examines how these linkages affect business cycle dynamics through the lens of a search and matching model augmented to include multi-worker establishments that endogenously enter and exit. Analytical...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014095622

On the cyclicality of real wages and wage differentials

Otrok, Christopher M. (contributor); … - 2008

We show that two models of the labor market, a Walrasian model and a labor contracting model, both have an approximate dynamic factor structure. We use this result to motivate our empirical approach to estimating the cyclical properties of real wages, which does not impose any structure between...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003746900

Automatic time series modeling and forecasting: a replication case study of forecasting real GDP, the unemployment rate and the impact of leading economic indicators

Guerard, John Baynard; Thomakos, Dimitrios D.; Kyriazi, … - In: Cogent economics & finance 8 (2020) 1, pp. 1-20

We test and report on time series modelling and forecasting using several US. Leading economic indicators (LEI) as an … input to forecasting real US. GDP and the unemployment rate. These time series have been addressed before, but our results … unemployment rate series. We tested the forecasting ability of best univariate and best bivariate models over 60- and 120-period …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012214684

Big data: Google-haut ennustavat työttömyyttä Suomessa

Tuhkuri, Joonas - 2014

There are over 3 billion searches globally on Google every day. This report examines whether Google search queries can be used to predict the present and the near future unemployment rate in Finland. Predicting the present and the near future is of interest, as the official records of the state...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012037651

Australian labor market dynamics across the ages

Ponomareva, Natalia; Sheen, Jeffrey R. - In: Economic modelling 35 (2013), pp. 453-463

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010336777

Macroeconomic forecasting and structural change

Gambetti, Luca; D’Agostino, Antonello; Giannone, Domenico - 2010

The aim of this paper is to assess whether explicitly modeling structural change increases the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts. We produce real time out-of-sample forecasts for inflation, the unemployment rate and the interest rate using a Time-Varying Coefficients VAR with Stochastic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605213