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The equilibrium rate of unemployment and the real exchange rate : an unobserved components system approach
Lindblad, Hans; Sellin, Peter - 2003
. Our results show that the Natural Rate/NAIRU has increased by approximately 1.5 percentage points since the 1970s, driven …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011583137
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Will the (German) NAIRU please stand up?
Franz, Wolfgang - 2003
" (NAIRU) for Germany. There are quite a few obstacles to perceiving the NAIRU as an understandable and easy-to-use analytical …, cointegration issues, and a time variability of the NAIRU and its confidence intervals. Despite many serious caveats a new attempt … is made to estimate a NAIRU for Germany based on conventional Phillips curves as well as on new approaches such as using …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011448601
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Monetary policy shocks in open economies and the inflation unemployment trade-off : the case of the Euro Area
Ribba, Antonio - In: Journal of risk and financial management : JRFM 15 (2022) 4, pp. 1-12
In this paper, we show that in order to obtain a sound identification of Euro Area monetary policy shocks, one needs to deal with the interaction of the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve. In other words, a proper identification of monetary policy shocks for an open economy like...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013168711
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The unemployment-inflation trade-off revisited : the Phillips curve in COVID times
Crump, Richard K.; Eusepi, Stefano; Giannoni, Marc Paolo; … - 2024
Using a New Keynesian Phillips curve, we document the rapid and persistent increase in the natural rate of unemployment, 𝑢𝑡 ∗ , in the aftermath of the pandemic and characterize its implications for inflation dynamics. While the bulk of the inflation surge is attributed to temporary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014501075
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Lessons for forecasting unemployment in the United States : use flow rates, mind the trend
Meyer, Brent; Tasci, Murat - 2015
This paper evaluates the ability of autoregressive models, professional forecasters, and models that incorporate unemployment flows to forecast the unemployment rate. We pay particular attention to flows-based approaches - the more reduced-form approach of Barnichon and Nekarda (2012) and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010484066
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Hysteresis and NAIRU in the Euro area
Logeay, Camille; Tober, Silke - 2005 - This version: July 2005
This paper analyses the Nairu in the Euro Area and the influence that hysteresis had on its development. Using the … Kalman-filter technique we find that the Nairu has varied considerably since the early seventies. The Kalman-filter technique … is applied here using explicit exogenous variables. In order to test for hysteresis, the dependence of the Nairu on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003744523
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Structural change in the US Phillips curve, 1948-2021 : the role of power and institutions
Setterfield, Mark; Blecker, Robert A. - 2022
This paper provides an institutional-analytical account of changes in the structure of the US Phillips curve (PC) during the post-war period. It does so by restoring conflict and power to the forefront of macro theory and, in particular, the wage- and price-setting behaviour of workers and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013347209
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Keynesian and monetarist views on the German unemployment problem : theory and evidence
Gottschalk, Jan - 2002
Persistently high unemployment rates in Germany have led to a long-running controversy on the causes of the unemployment problem. This paper aims to re­view the contribution of Keynesian and monetarist theories to this controversy and explores empirically their implications for the explanation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011474695
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Hysteresis in unemployment : evidence from OECD estimates of the natural rate
Ball, Laurence M.; Onken, Joern - 2021
This paper studies the dynamics of unemployment (u) and its natural rate (u*), with u* measured by real-time estimates for 29 countries from the OECD. We find strong evidence of hysteresis: an innovation in u causes u* to change in the same direction, and therefore has permanent effects. For our...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012705521
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Measuring the UK short-run NAIRU
Batini, Nicoletta; Greenslade, Jennifer V. - 2003
This paper derives alternative measures of the short-run NAIRU (SRN) for the UK, the rate for unemployment at which … inflation will neither increase nor decrease in the short-run. We estimate the NAIRU jointly with price equations by using the …-run NAIRU measures prove helpful in predicting inflation and we demonstrate their usefulness in Taylor-type policy rules for the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011517881