The presence of discontinuities in the January rounds of Philippine Unemployment Data from 1981-2006 is investigated by way of modeling these data as a noisy Compound Gauss-Markov Random Fields (CGMRF). The likelihood and prior hyper-parameters are respectively estimated with wavelet shrinkage...

We test and report on time series modelling and forecasting using several US. Leading economic indicators (LEI) as an input to forecasting real US. GDP and the unemployment rate. These time series have been addressed before, but our results are more statistically significant using more recently...

After the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September of 2008 and the financial panic that ensued, the Federal Reserve moved rapidly to reduce the federal funds rate to .25%. It was quickly judged that additional measures were needed to stabilize the U.S. economy. Beginning in December 2008, the...

In flow models of the labor market, wages are determined by negotiations between workers and employers on the surplus value of a realized match. From this perspective our study presents an econometric analysis of the influence of labor market flows on wage formation as alternative to the...

This report uses estimates from the Congressional Budget Office to project an unemployment scenario for the Pandemic Recession. We go on to use detailed unemployment and homeless data from the 2008 Great Recession to estimate the linkage between unemployment and homelessness and forecast the...

This report estimates the demography, occupations, industries, and communities of California workers who have a high risk of unemployment in the 2020 Covid recession so that they and their employers can be located and provided with timely and effective assistance for preventing economic...

In Chapter 1 of the dissertation, the role of social networks is analyzed as an important determinant in the search behavior of the unemployed. Based on the hypothesis that the unemployed generate information on vacancies through their social network, search theory predicts that individuals with...

This paper investigates the finite sample properties of a range of inference methods for propensity score-based matching and weighting estimators frequently applied to evaluate the average treatment effect on the treated. We analyse both asymptotic approximations and bootstrap methods for...

This paper analyzes the economic and social consequences of job loss which contribute to exclusion from society based on German linked survey and administrative data. To study the causal relationship between unemployment and multiple dimensions of social marginalization, I combine inverse...