We study how the transparency of welfare systems affects labor market outcomes of unemployed workers in a large-scale field experiment. Our low-cost information intervention uses a personalized online tool that informs benefit recipients about their personal risk of a benefit reduction when not...

We propose a novel theory of self-fulfilling fluctuations in the labor market. A firm employing an additional worker generates positive externalities on other firms, because employed workers have more income to spend and have less time to shop for low prices than unemployed workers. We quantify...