This paper applies the Campbell-Shiller (1988) methodology to estimate a price dividend model with volatility and inflation risk, extending existing models in this field. The model fits the data well over the period 1979-2002 for the Euro Area, but less so for the U.S. The latter is interpreted...

The 1990s were the most prosperous decade in U.S. economic history. The paper analyses to which extent this period fits into preceding cyclical experience. This is done by classifying the period 1991-12 to 2000-12 with the help of a 4-phase classification scheme based on multivariate...

This paper uses an empirical connection between real stock market indices of Germany and the USA for forecasting corresponding returns. We are starting from the random walk as the traditional forecasting model in stock market applications, extending it by co-integration. Since the cointegrating...

Dieses Papier untersucht, inwieweit Multifaktormodelle nach Fama/French (1993) am deutschen Aktienmarkt die zeitliche Streuung von Renditen abbilden und Portfolio-Renditen im Querschnitt erklären können. Analog zu vergleichbar angelegten Studien am US-amerikanischen, kanadischen und britischen...