Within a decision-making group, such as the monetary-policy committee of a central bank, group members often hold differing views about the future of key economic variables. Such differences of opinion can be thought of as reflecting differing sets of judgement. This paper suggests modelling...

No macroeconometeric forecasting technique anticipated the financial market meltdown and subsequent Great Recession in 2008-2009. This failure is not surprising because it is hard to forecast unprecedented events. The experience explains, however, why many forecasters, particular those supplying...

This paper describes the OECD’s new small global forecasting model for the three main OECD economic regions: the United States, the euro area, and Japan. The key variables – which include output, inflation, the trade balance, and import prices – are driven by monetary and fiscal policy,...

We propose a new fiscal transmission channel based on countercyclical monopsony power in the labor market. We develop a Two-Agent New Keynesian model incorporating a time-varying degree of monopsony power, with workers valuing various job aspects and firms having wage-setting power, inversely...

This article is concerned with frequency-domain analysis of dynamic linear models under the hypothesis of rational expectations. We develop a unified framework for conveniently solving and estimating these models. Unlike existing strategies, our starting point is to obtain the model solution...

To avoid exploding government debt, numerical macro models require "fiscal reaction rules". Present rules impose arbitrary, backward-looking reaction of taxes to deviations of the debt ratio from a target. Arbitrary models may be poor guides to monetary policy. A constant future tax rate is...

This paper reviews the existing empirical evidence on the short-term impact on prices of fiscal variables and assesses it against new results from harmonised simulations, conducted with six well-established econometric models used by the ECB and five national central banks (NCBs) of the...