We examine the impact of the monthly Employment Situation Report issued by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and of analyst forecasts of that report on U.S. Treasury securities market. Surprise increases in total non-farm payroll employment lead to increases in interest rates (especially 1-...

We review the labor market implications of recent real-business-cycle models that successfully replicate the empirical equity premium. We document the fact that all models considered in this survey with the exception of Boldrin, Christiano, and Fisher (2001) imply a negative correlation of...

This paper examines whether sell-side equity analysts use labor market information, as reflected in job postings and corporate layoffs, to improve the quality of their earnings forecasts. We posit that labor market activities contain useful incremental information about the related firm and the...

Using a novel data set based on individual resumes of public firm employees, we propose a monthly index of aggregate labor flow that measures the dynamics of firm employment. We find that the index can predict the economic outputs significantly: an increase in the index leads to greater...

This study documents simple trading strategies that predict stock returns using the sentiment information of labor market related news articles. I identify the average sentiment scores of labor market related news articles of each firm daily and use them to predict stock returns. Unlike the...

Using Phillips-curve regressions, I study how option-implied inflation moments respond to employment dynamics after the Great Financial Crisis (GFC). In a tight labor market, changes in moments imply that the risk of a moderate inflation overshoot rises by a tenth when the unemployment gap falls...

Der Beitrag enthält eine Neuschätzung der inflationsstabilen Arbeitslosenquote (NAIRU) für Westdeutschland 1980 bis 1998. Nach einer Darstellung des konzeptionellen Rahmens der NAIRU einschließlich verschiedener Varianten, welche beispielsweise exogenen Schocks und dem Hysterese-Phänomen...