Botelho, Vasco; Foroni, Claudia; Renzetti, Andrea - 2023
at risk in the euro area and in the United States. We model the asymmetry of the shocks to changes in the unemployment … rate as a function of real activity and financial risk factors. We find that the conditional distribution of the changes in … risk defined as the possible joint event of large increases in the unemployment rate and large annual rates of inflation …