This paper investigates the role of mismatch between job seekers and job openings for the forecasting performance of a labor market matching function. In theory, higher mismatch lowers matching efficiency which increases the risk that the vacancies cannot be filled within the usual period of...

We compare real-time density forecasts for the euro area using three DSGE models. The benchmark is the Smets-Wouters model and its forecasts of real GDP growth and inflation are compared with those from two extensions. The first adds financial frictions and expands the observables to include a...

Using the example of short-term forecasts for German employment figures, the article at hand examines the question whether the use of disaggregated information increases the forecast accuracy of the aggregate. For this purpose, the out-ofsample forecasts for the aggregated employment forecast...

The paper makes use of conventional manpower and educational planning methods by formulating and applying a forecasting model of labour imbalances in terms of demand and supply for occupational types and educational levels. The aim of public policy is to close the gaps in the absence of labour...

We show that high-frequency private payroll microdata can help forecast labor market conditions. Payroll employment is perhaps the most reliable real-time indicator of the business cycle and is therefore closely followed by policymakers, academia, and financial markets. Government statistical...

Euro area labour market variables are published with a considerable lag, longer than in the case of real GDP. We develop a suite of models to provide a more timely estimate (nowcast) of euro area quarterly employment growth based on a broad range of monthly indicators. The suite includes a batch...

Die Studie "EU-Erweiterung und Arbeitskräftemigration" wurde vom ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung , München, im Forschungsbereich Sozialpolitik und A r - beitsmärkte erstellt und im Dezember 2000 abgeschlossen. Auftraggeber war das Bundesministerium für Arbeit und Sozialordnung ....