This paper proposes a new bivariate competing risks model in which both durations are the first passage times of dependent Lévy subordinators with exponential thresholds and multiplicative covariates effects. Our specification extends the mixed proportional hazards model, as it allows for the...

This paper proposes a variant of a threshold stochastic conditional duration (TSCD) model for financial data at the transaction level. It assumes that the innovations of the duration process follow a threshold distribution with a positive support. In addition, it also assumes that the latent...

We adopt an unobserved components time series model to track the business cycles in the G7 countries using the Industrial production index over the period from 1:1961 to 8:2017. The advantage of adopting the industrial production series frequency is that the business cycle can be investigated in...

We address the concerns about rising inequality in the German labour market after the implementation of the Hartz reforms between 2003 and 2005. We focus on the quality of new jobs started between 1998 and 2010 in West Germany in terms of job stability and level of earnings. Using social...

Long-term unemployment reached unprecedented levels in Spain in the wake of the Great Recession and it still affects around 57% of the unemployed. We document the sources that contributed to the rise in long-term unemployment and analyze its persistence using state-of-the-art duration models. We...

The public employment service (PES) makes use in many countries of vacancy referrals as to facilitate the matching between unemployed workers and vacancies. Based on a “timing-of-events” approach to control for selective participation, this study evaluates whether this policy instrument...

This paper aims to present one possible retail estimation framework of lifetime probability of default in accordance with IFRS 9. The framework rests on "term structure of probability of default" conditional to given forward-looking macroeconomic dynamics. Due to the one of the biggest...

We estimate the effect of active labour-market programmes on the exit rate to regular employment for non-western immigrants in Denmark who receive social assistance. We use the timing-of-events duration model and rich administrative data. We find large positive post-programme effects, and,...