We address the concerns about rising inequality in the German labour market after the implementation of the Hartz reforms between 2003 and 2005. We focus on the quality of new jobs started between 1998 and 2010 in West Germany in terms of job stability and level of earnings. Using social...

Long-term unemployment reached unprecedented levels in Spain in the wake of the Great Recession and it still affects around 57% of the unemployed. We document the sources that contributed to the rise in long-term unemployment and analyze its persistence using state-of-the-art duration models. We...

The public employment service (PES) makes use in many countries of vacancy referrals as to facilitate the matching between unemployed workers and vacancies. Based on a “timing-of-events” approach to control for selective participation, this study evaluates whether this policy instrument...

We estimate the effect of active labour-market programmes on the exit rate to regular employment for non-western immigrants in Denmark who receive social assistance. We use the timing-of-events duration model and rich administrative data. We find large positive post-programme effects, and,...

The aim of this paper is to measure the effect of the interaction between age for the population of males and females aged 18 to 74 and region-level GDP per capita on labour market transition probabilities in Italy. We compare different occupational states in a sample of males and females who...

In this paper, we evaluate the impact of a minimum income scheme (MIS) in the Basque Country, one of Spain’s 17 autonomous regions. In particular, we assess whether the policy delays entry into employment for recipients, as well as the extent to which activating policies aimed at enabling...

We evaluate the individual employment effects of four types of short-term training for immigrants and natives in the German welfare system and identify differences in the effects determined by unobservable factors. Based on comprehensive and unique administrative data, we apply propensity score...

The objective of this research is to introduce in literature new measures of accuracy for point forecasts (radical of order n of the mean of squared errors, mean for the difference between each predicted value and the mean of the effective values, ratio of radicals of sum of squared errors...

The key assumption in regression discontinuity analysis is that the distribution of potential outcomes varies smoothly with the running variable around the cutoff. In many empirical contexts, however, this assumption is not credible; and the running variable is said to be manipulated in this...

Causal effects of a policy change on hazard rates of a duration outcome variable are not identified from a comparison of spells before and after the policy change if there is unobserved heterogeneity in the effects and no model structure is imposed. We develop a discontinuity approach that...