Although it is generally accepted that consumer confidence measures are informative signals about the state of the economy, theoretical macroeconomic models designed for the analysis of monetary policy typically do not provide a role for them. I develop a framework with asymmetric information in...

We study the informational role of prices. To that end, we consider the framework of a dominant firm with a competitive fringe. When the competitive fringe is large enough, there exists a unique fully revealing equilibrium, in which the price conveys full information about the quality of the...

We study the informational role of prices in a stochastic environment. We provide a closed-form solution of the monopoly problem when the price imperfectly signals quality to the uninformed buyers. We then study the effect of noise on output, market price, information flows, and expected...

We present a diagrammatic and step-by-step analysis of price signaling quality. Because quality is a continuum on the real positive line, out-of-equilibrium beliefs need not be specified, i.e., every positive price is a positive outcome in equilibrium. We first study the behavior of the monopoly...

In a binary prediction market in which risk-neutral traders have heterogeneous prior beliefs and are allowed to invest a limited amount of money, the static rational expectations equilibrium price is demonstrated to underreact to information. This effect is consistent with a favorite-longshot...

The assumption of perfectly rational representative agents is now commonly questioned. This paper explores the equilibrium properties of boundedly rational heterogeneous agents. We combine an adaptive learning process in a modified cobweb model within a Stackleberg framework. We assume that...

This paper considers a dynamic duopoly market with strategic, price setting firms and an infinite set of fully rational, privately informed consumers who enter the market sequentially. I show that there exists a sequential equilibrium in which prices converge to their realized product qualities...

Consider an investment problem with strategic complementarities and incomplete information about returns. This paper shows that investors aggregate their private information in equilibrium by trading a token and observing its market price over multiple rounds before making the investment...

We propose an equivalent formulation of a two player information design problem in terms of choosing a copula, as opposed to choosing a joint distribution of a signal and the state variable. We then propose a copula based signal ordering which is both necessary and sufficient for the more...

We study firms' incentives to acquire costly information in booms and recessions to understand the role of endogenous information in explaining asymmetric business cycles. When the economy has been in a boom in the previous period, and firms enter the current period with an optimistic belief,...