might be the case is not clear. This paper builds a model to explain how a third-party's expected intervention in a conflict … could worsen the conflict. I study a two-period model of conflict (contest) with two combatants and a third party who is an … in the conflict). If the third party will not intervene in a big way, then there exists a unique perfect Bayesian …

potential. Applications include international conflict, litigation, and elections. Even though only a peaceful agreement avoids … a loss of resources, if this loss is small enough, then any contract must assign a positive probability of conflict. We … show how the likelihood of conflict outbreak depends on the distribution of power between the agents and their information …