One apparent reason for deferring a decision – abstaining from choosing, leaving the decision open to be taken by someone else, one’s later self, or nature – is for lack of sufficient confidence in the relevant beliefs. This paper develops an axiomatic theory of decision in situations...

This paper presents a complete, choice-based, axiomatic Bayesian decision theory. It introduces a new choice set consisting of information-contingent plans for choosing actions and bets and subjective expected utility model with effect-dependent utility functions and action-dependent subjective...

This Article argues that information gaps—pockets of information that are pertinent and knowable but not currently known—are a byproduct of shadow banking and a meaningful source of systemic risk. It lays the foundation for this claim by juxtaposing the regulatory regime governing the shadow...

The term "information risk" or "information uncertainty" is defined as the risk of a misleading signal. This risk is understood Bayesianly in terms of the likelihood function f(S|φ). In Bayesian method, f(S|φ) captures the quality of signal S with respect to parameter φ. The Bayesian position...

We study information disclosure and diversification in contests with technological uncertainty, where agents can pursue different technologies to compete in the contest, but there is uncertainty regarding which will be implemented ex post. The principal can credibly reveal some information about...

This article develops a Bayesian persuasion model examining a manager's incentives to gather information when the manager can disseminate this information selectively to interested parties (“users”) and when the objectives of the manager and the users are not perfectly aligned. The model...

A Principal has a set of projects, each having different benefit potentials, and each requiring a basic technology from one of two experts and time inputs from both experts. Experts enjoy motivation utilities from production, but have private information of their own motivation preferences and...

When there is strategic complementarity and all agents have access to public information, but only a subset of them has access to private information, strategic complementarity within the subset of privately-informed agents enhances the focal power of public information. This results to an...

Revisions of consensus forecasts of macroeconomic variables positively predict announcement day forecast errors, whereas stock market returns on forecast revision days negatively predict announcement day returns. A dynamic noisy rational expectations model with periodic macroeconomic...

We study how statutory-law changes relate to disclosure, pricing, and liquidity in the used-car market. Federal odometer laws mandated disclosure of mileage on car titles upon ownership transfer and thereby enhanced enforcement of odometer-fraud prohibitions. Exploiting time variations in state...